US Tells Dozens of Allies They Must Pick Sides in the AI Race With China
The United States is preparing to tell dozens of countries they can no longer straddle both sides of the global AI rivalry. Washington plans to warn signatories of its Pax Silica initiative that joining China's competing AI framework will get them excluded from the U.S.-led coalition entirely, according to a U.S. official and an internal draft reviewed by Reuters.
What Is Pax Silica, and Why Does It Matter Now
Pax Silica is a U.S.-led coalition launched last year to secure allied supply chains for AI models, semiconductors, and critical minerals while reducing reliance on adversaries like China. About two dozen countries have joined so far, including close U.S. allies Japan, Australia, and South Korea, alongside Kazakhstan, a key potential source of critical minerals.
The draft letter is addressed to all 35 signatories of a separate U.S. "AI Opportunity Statement" signed in June, a group that overlaps heavily with Pax Silica's non-binding membership. A U.S. official, speaking to Reuters on condition of anonymity given ongoing internal discussions, framed the ultimatum bluntly: "It's difficult to see how a country can credibly position themselves as trusted partners in one technology ecosystem while simultaneously supporting a competing framework."
Why Kazakhstan Became the Flashpoint
Kazakhstan's dual membership in both the U.S. and Chinese coalitions appears to have triggered this escalation specifically. Kazakhstan has joined Pax Silica while also signing on to China's competing initiative, a position Washington now considers untenable. As one U.S. official summarized the administration's position to RBC-Ukraine, "You can't have it both ways." The draft letter reportedly urges signatory countries to "choose deliberately" whether they remain part of the Pax Silica Declaration going forward.
How This Fits the Broader US-China AI Rivalry
This ultimatum lands as the underlying competitive balance shifts fast. Chinese open-weight AI models have made rapid gains against proprietary systems from OpenAI and Anthropic in recent months, a trend we've tracked closely, including in our coverage of Hugging Face CEO Clément Delangue's warning that China could overtake US frontier labs by year-end. That competitive pressure connects directly to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's earlier warning that the US could sanction China over alleged AI intellectual property theft, and to the pushback from nearly 200 US startups who argue restricting Chinese open-weight models would primarily hurt American companies that depend on them.
Beijing isn't standing still either. China is separately weighing restrictions on overseas access to some of its own leading AI models, according to Reuters' original reporting, a move that would tighten China's side of the standoff just as Washington tightens its own.
Pax Silica vs. China's Coalition: Key Facts
Pax Silica (US-led) | China's Framework | |
|---|---|---|
Launched | 2025 | Not disclosed in reporting |
Signatories | 35 (AI Opportunity Statement) | Not disclosed |
Known dual members | Kazakhstan | Kazakhstan |
Core focus | AI models, semiconductors, critical minerals | Competing AI cooperation framework |
Status | Non-binding | Non-binding |
Official Responses Have Been Measured, Not Confrontational
The State Department declined to confirm the strategy directly, telling Reuters it would not comment on "purportedly leaked internal documents." China's embassy in Washington pushed back sharply on the framing itself, with a spokesperson telling The Business Standard, "Such actions will only stifle global AI advances and serve no one's interests." The Kazakh embassy did not respond to requests for comment from any outlet covering the story.
Why This Matters for Business
Businesses operating across multiple international markets should treat this development as an early signal that AI vendor and infrastructure choices are becoming geopolitical decisions, not purely technical or commercial ones. A country's alignment with either coalition could eventually affect which AI models, chips, and cloud infrastructure remain legally or practically accessible within its borders.
For multinational companies, this is worth watching closely alongside the broader pattern of Chinese open-weight AI models gaining commercial traction on price and capability. If more countries are forced to formally choose a side, the resulting fragmentation could reshape which AI tools are available or preferred in different regions, regardless of which model performs best on pure merit.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Pax Silica initiative?
Pax Silica is a U.S.-led coalition launched in 2025 to secure allied supply chains for AI models, semiconductors, and critical minerals while reducing dependence on China.
Which countries have joined Pax Silica?
About two dozen countries have joined, including Japan, Australia, South Korea, and Kazakhstan, according to Reuters' reporting on the U.S. official's comments.
Why is the US pressuring countries to choose sides now?
The move follows Kazakhstan joining both the US and Chinese AI coalitions simultaneously, which U.S. officials say undermines trust in either partnership, amid broader competitive pressure from fast-advancing Chinese open-weight AI models.
The Fast Version
The U.S. is preparing to warn dozens of Pax Silica signatory countries that joining China's competing AI coalition will get them excluded from the American-led framework. The draft letter, addressed to 35 countries that signed a U.S. "AI Opportunity Statement" in June, follows Kazakhstan's decision to join both coalitions simultaneously. The ultimatum comes as Chinese open-weight AI models continue gaining ground against U.S. proprietary systems, intensifying the broader technology rivalry between Washington and Beijing.
